2025 May Market Outlook: Navigating Volatility Amid Trade Tensions and Monetary Policy Caution

Global Markets
The global stock market, as represented by the MSCI World Index, rose 0.74% in April. Gains were primarily driven by robust performance in non-U.S. equities and a temporary easing of global trade tensions. While U.S. markets experienced sharp mid-month volatility following the announcement of sweeping new tariffs, a partial rollback—excluding China—helped restore investor confidence. Resilience in large-cap technology stocks and a rotation into defensive sectors also contributed to gains. Additionally, expectations of monetary easing in select developed markets outside the U.S. provided a tailwind, helping global equities recover despite ongoing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty.
 

General Outlook and Views
April began with heightened volatility following the surprise rollout of the “Liberation Day Tariffs,” which included a blanket 10% levy on all imports and steeper country-specific rates. Markets reacted swiftly—equities tumbled, and Treasury yields dropped as risk-off sentiment took hold. A temporary rebound followed the U.S. decision to pause most tariffs, excluding those on China. However, China’s swift retaliation reignited trade tensions, pulling markets lower once again. Despite the volatility and uncertainty, equities have since staged a robust recovery, supported by a tentative trade truce between the two economic powers. Investor sentiment was buoyed by the prospect of renewed negotiations, contributing to a broad-based rally. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged, adopting a cautious, data-dependent approach as it assesses the broader impact of trade disruptions.

Recession risks, however, remain elevated amid subdued consumer sentiment, persistent macroeconomic headwinds, and the fragile state of U.S.–China trade negotiations. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reinforces its wait-and-see stance, while the recent credit rating downgrade by Moody’s has drawn renewed attention to the U.S.’s long-term fiscal vulnerabilities—adding another layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.

Nonetheless, we remain cautiously optimistic. While the broader economic landscape remains clouded by trade policy uncertainty and political volatility, the possibility of continued U.S.–China engagement offers some hope for de-escalation and market stabilization.
Against this backdrop of fragile trade dynamics, tightening fiscal credibility, and a patient Fed, we remain focused on navigating near-term volatility through disciplined portfolio positioning. We continue to monitor developments closely, recognizing that trade relations, monetary policy, and political developments will remain key drivers of global growth and market stability in the months ahead. Given the current environment, we believe it remains prudent to refrain from significant portfolio shifts until greater policy clarity emerges.